ComEd Hourly Pricing Q1 2026: Polar Vortex, Negative Prices, and $2.64 Spikes
A Data-Driven Look at 24,332 Price Readings from January Through March
Q1 2026 was one of the wildest quarters for ComEd hourly pricing in recent memory. A polar vortex sent prices above 84¢/kWh in late January, then the market whipsawed to -34.9¢/kWh just three days later — meaning ComEd was literally paying customers to use electricity. In March, a freak windstorm pushed prices past $2.64/kWh for a brief, eye-watering spike.
We tracked 24,332 five-minute price readings across the entire quarter using Electrac's real-time price monitoring. This post breaks down what happened, when electricity was cheapest and most expensive, and how weather drove the most dramatic price swings.
Q1 2026 at a Glance
Average Price
3.64¢
per kWh
Median Price
2.60¢
per kWh
Highest Price
264.4¢
Mar 12, 6pm
Lowest Price
-34.9¢
Jan 27, 5am
The gap between the average (3.64¢) and median (2.60¢) tells an important story: most of the time, prices were low and stable. But a handful of extreme events — driven by weather — pulled the average significantly higher. If you could avoid the spike hours, hourly pricing was a bargain this quarter.
Daily Average Prices Across the Quarter
The chart below shows daily average prices from January 1 through March 31. Two events dominate the landscape: the polar vortex spike in late January and the windstorm spike in mid-March.
Daily average ComEd hourly price (¢/kWh), Q1 2026. Data: Electrac price tracker.
Month-by-Month Breakdown
| Month | Avg Price | Min | Max | % Negative | % Above 10¢ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3.56¢ | -34.9¢ | 84.2¢ | 14.9% | 10% |
| February | 4.05¢ | -25.2¢ | 114.1¢ | 6% | 7% |
| March | 3.32¢ | -5.9¢ | 264.4¢ | 7% | 3.7% |
January: The Polar Vortex Month
January had the most volatile pricing of the quarter. Temperatures in Chicago dropped to -11°F on January 23 with wind chills of -36°F. Nearly 15% of all price readings were negative — mostly in the days after the vortex peak when demand collapsed faster than generators could ramp down. The average price of 3.56¢ masks a wild ride from 84.2¢ on Jan 24 to -34.9¢ on Jan 27.
February: Lingering Volatility
February was the most expensive month on average at 4.05¢/kWh. The early part of the month saw continued cold-weather pricing: Feb 2 averaged 13.5¢ and Feb 9 hit a spike of 114.1¢ during a 6 AM price surge. But the second half was calmer — a record-high temperature of 65°F on Feb 16 brought demand and prices back to earth. February was the 3rd driest February on record for Chicago.
March: Spring Transition with a Surprise
March was the cheapest month at 3.32¢ average, with warmer-than-normal temperatures (mean of 44.3°F, 9.1°F above normal). Prices were stable and low most of the month — until March 12, when a single evening spike hit 264.4¢/kWh. This was followed the next morning by another burst to 257.6¢ during a damaging wind event with 60+ mph gusts. Excluding those two days, March's average would have been just 2.6¢.
Best Time to Use Electricity
If you're on ComEd's hourly pricing plan, timing matters. Here's how prices varied by hour and day of the week across Q1 2026.
By Hour of Day
The cheapest hours were consistently in the early morning: 3 AM (1.48¢) and 4 AM (1.86¢) were the best times to run heavy loads. The most expensive hours were 6 AM (7.26¢) and 6 PM (7.45¢) — the morning and evening demand peaks when everyone is heating their homes or cooking dinner.
Average price by hour of day (¢/kWh), Q1 2026. Green = cheapest, Red = most expensive.
Practical tip: Schedule EV charging, dishwashers, and laundry for 1-5 AM to take advantage of the lowest prices. Avoid running heavy loads between 6-8 AM and 5-8 PM when prices averaged 2-3x the overnight rate.
By Day of Week
Tuesdays and Sundays were the cheapest days of the week, while Saturdays were surprisingly the most expensive. This runs counter to the usual pattern where weekdays are pricier due to commercial demand — the polar vortex event happened to land on a Friday-Saturday (Jan 24-25), pulling Saturday's average up.
Average price by day of week (¢/kWh), Q1 2026.
The Polar Vortex: January 23-27
The January-February 2026 cold wave was caused by a sudden stratospheric warming event that pushed the polar vortex south over the central US. Chicago experienced five consecutive days of extreme pricing volatility.
Hourly average prices during the polar vortex event (¢/kWh), Jan 23-27, 2026.
Here's how the event unfolded:
January 23 — The Cold Arrives
Chicago hit -11°F with -36°F wind chills. Heating demand surged and prices climbed from 3¢ in the morning to 23.5¢ by 8 PM. Natural gas futures jumped 96% during the week, from $2.70 to $5.28 per thousand cubic feet.
January 24 — Peak Prices
The coldest day of the event. PJM expected demand to surpass 130,000 MW for seven consecutive days — a first in its history. The Department of Energy granted PJM emergency authorization to run all generators at full capacity regardless of emissions limits. Prices peaked at 84.2¢/kWh at 4 AM, with the daily average hitting 26.6¢.
January 25 — The Whiplash Begins
As temperatures started to moderate, demand dropped — but generators that had been running full-bore couldn't scale back as fast. The afternoon saw prices go negative for the first time, hitting -9.6¢ by 3 PM.
January 26-27 — Sustained Negative Prices
Oversupply dominated. January 27 was the most extreme: prices were negative for the entire day until 5 PM, bottoming out at -34.9¢/kWh at 5 AM. That day, 271 out of 283 price readings (96%) were below zero. Generators were effectively paying the grid to take their electricity because shutting down and restarting a power plant is more expensive than running at a loss.
The March 12-13 Wind Event
The single highest price reading of the quarter — 264.4¢/kWh ($2.64 per kilowatt-hour) — came not during the polar vortex, but on an otherwise normal March evening. At 6:19 PM on March 12, prices spiked from about 2-3¢ to over $2.64 in a matter of minutes.
The cause: a powerful non-thunderstorm wind event with gusts exceeding 60 mph swept through the Chicago area on March 13, with conditions building through the evening of March 12. These winds stress transmission infrastructure and can force generators offline unexpectedly. The National Weather Service documented the event as a significant damaging wind event.
The March 12 evening spike averaged 119.2¢ during the 6 PM hour, and the March 13 morning spike hit 257.6¢ at 6:31 AM as the high winds continued. But both events were short-lived — by 8 AM on March 13, prices were back below zero.
Context: At 264.4¢/kWh, running a 5,000-watt electric dryer for one hour would cost $13.22. At the quarter's median price of 2.6¢, that same hour costs just 13 cents — a 100x difference.
How Weather Drove Prices
The Q1 2026 data makes a strong case that weather is the single biggest driver of hourly price volatility. Here's the pattern across the quarter:
| Period | Weather | Avg Price | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1-22 | Cold, with warm spell on Jan 9 (60°F record) | 2.5¢ | Normal winter pricing |
| Jan 23-24 | Polar vortex: -11°F, -36°F wind chill | 18.2¢ | 7x normal — heating demand + gas prices |
| Jan 25-27 | Post-vortex warming | -2.5¢ | Oversupply crash — generators can't ramp down |
| Feb 1-9 | Lingering cold, cold snaps | 6.1¢ | Above-average, continued winter demand |
| Feb 10-28 | Warming trend, 65°F record on Feb 16 | 2.9¢ | Mild weather = low, stable prices |
| Mar 1-11 | Warm spring, tornadoes Mar 10 | 2.9¢ | Low demand, near-normal pricing |
| Mar 12-13 | 60+ mph wind gusts | 9.1¢ | Transmission stress, brief extreme spikes |
| Mar 14-31 | Mild spring, warming trend | 2.6¢ | Cheapest sustained period of the quarter |
The correlation is clear: mild, stable weather produces cheap electricity. Extreme cold drives up demand and prices. High winds can cause sudden supply shocks. And the aftermath of extreme events can produce negative prices as the grid overshoots in its response.
Negative Prices: When ComEd Pays You
Across Q1 2026, 9.2% of all price readings were negative — that's roughly 2,241 five-minute intervals where hourly pricing customers were being paid to consume electricity. January led with 14.9% of readings below zero, driven almost entirely by the post-vortex oversupply.
Why does this happen? When demand drops suddenly (like when a cold snap breaks), base-load generators — particularly nuclear plants, which supply over 53% of Illinois's electricity — can't easily throttle down. Shutting down a nuclear reactor and restarting it later costs far more than accepting negative prices for a few hours. Wind farms face similar economics: when it's windy and demand is low, they'd rather sell at a loss than curtail generation and lose their production tax credits.
The deepest negative prices consistently occurred between 3-5 AM, when demand is at its lowest. On January 27, the daily average was -10.5¢/kWh — the equivalent of getting paid roughly 10 cents for every kilowatt-hour you used. Charging an EV during those hours would have generated a small profit rather than a cost.
The Bottom Line
For ComEd hourly pricing customers, Q1 2026 offered both risk and reward. The data points to a few clear strategies:
- Shift heavy loads to 1-5 AM. Average prices during these hours were 1.5-2.7¢ — roughly half the daily average and a third of peak pricing.
- Avoid 6-8 AM and 5-8 PM. Morning and evening peaks consistently ran 5-7.5¢, and during extreme events, these hours saw the highest absolute prices.
- Watch weather forecasts. Every major price event this quarter was weather-driven. When the NWS issues extreme cold or high wind warnings, expect higher prices — and plan accordingly.
- Don't panic about spikes. The 264¢ March 12 reading lasted minutes, not hours. Even on the worst day (Jan 24), the average was 26.6¢. These events are dramatic but brief.
- Consider the median, not the average. The median price of 2.6¢ is a better representation of what you'll typically pay. Most of the time, hourly pricing is cheap.
If you want to track these prices in real time and get alerts when prices spike or drop, Electrac's dashboard shows live ComEd hourly pricing data and can notify you of unusual price movements. We'll continue publishing quarterly reports as we collect more data — stay tuned for the Q2 summer pricing report, where air conditioning demand typically reshapes the price curve.
